MIAMI VALLEY -- We have seen slight risks but not a moderate risk this season here in the Miami Valley. Some of the severe weather indices we look at are showing EXTREME instability late afternoon into the evening due to a warm and moist atmosphere. By the evening we will have a warm front enter from the north, which will drive all this heat and moisture up into stronger/severe storms.
TIMING: Some will see severe storms earlier in the evening but the main bulk of the precipitation will be overnight starting closer to midnight.
THREATS: We could see everything, but the main threat with this will be damaging straight line winds. Right now our threat is at 45 percent, meaning that one out of every two 2 SEVERE thunderstorms could go severe. However, don't rule out large hail and even an isolated tornado. ALSO.... HEAVY RAIN. The storms, even if they are not severe in your neighborhood, could easily dump 1-2 inches of rain overnight, which could lead to some flash flooding. This warm and cold front attached to a low will roll through the overnight and will clear heading into the afternoon.
TIMING: Some will see severe storms earlier in the evening but the main bulk of the precipitation will be overnight starting closer to midnight.
THREATS: We could see everything, but the main threat with this will be damaging straight line winds. Right now our threat is at 45 percent, meaning that one out of every two 2 SEVERE thunderstorms could go severe. However, don't rule out large hail and even an isolated tornado. ALSO.... HEAVY RAIN. The storms, even if they are not severe in your neighborhood, could easily dump 1-2 inches of rain overnight, which could lead to some flash flooding. This warm and cold front attached to a low will roll through the overnight and will clear heading into the afternoon.
